Tuesday, July 31, 2012
The Semi-Bluff In No Limit, by David Sklansky
Here is an article by David Sklansky about the kind of things we have to think about when we make a semi-bluff. The World Poker Tour has taken the No Limit Holdem to be the vanguard of poker. There are many players who think that psychology is much more important than mathematics. It is not true. Here is an example. The blinds are $ 100 and $ 200 and you A8o big blind position. A player in early I raised to $ 800 and the player to his left calls. You have $ 3,000 and less than stack them. Clearly it would be wrong to call. How about moving all-in? To see if this move is well you need both the ability to read his hand as mathematics. Suppose, for example, that "wear? opponents both nines or more, and in any AK and AQs. Making this assumption, is it right to put your three thousand dollars on the table with your A8o? Here's how the problem is solved with a reasonable degree of accuracy. First count the number of combinations of cards that each opponent may have. Please note that you have an ace. 33 combinations are pairs.
12 are AK. 3 are AQs. A total of 48. Each player will call with 18 of these combinations (AA-3, KK-6, QQ-6, AKs-3). There are about _ probability that a particular player and then call _ likely that not. The probability that both players to fold is approximately _ x _, or about 40%. They will call you approximately 60%. Rarely do both players call, so ignore this possibility given the intention of our calculation.
Imagine this situation occurs 100 times. About 40 times steal and profit will be 1,700%. The other 60% of the time will have aces 10 times, 20 kings, queens 20, and AKs 10 times (again approximately). Earn about once when you have aces, about six when you have kings, queens when you have six, and two when you have AKs. When you pay 15 times sixty win and lose 45. In total win $ 1,700 (including the small blind) 40 times, you win $ 3900 15 times and lose 45 times $ 3,200. $ 68,000 + $ 57,500 - $ 144,000. The negative balance is $ 18,500. A bad move? If you think that's why you're not thinking. It is true that on average $ 185 every time you make this move. But this is better than the alternative, which will cost $ 200 each time, $ 20,000 in 100 hands. Note that if your hand were two jacks instead of A8o, subtracted would be much worse play (and clearly wrong) against the same two rivals. You'll draw the same number of times or so, but do not earn less. It is important to note that the alternative is not a loss of two hundred dollars. Almost certainly do better by call, assuming you're able to play well postflop.
Check out the math for yourself. This article, as you saw, was not intended specifically to teach you to play a hand, but to explain the kinds of things you should think about playing. Source: 2 + 2 Magazine
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